Brussels calculates what new rules could cost Moroccan tomatoes: 195,000 tonnes
A study by the European Commission puts a figure on the potential impact of tighter pesticide rules. In its intermediate scenario, Moroccan tomato exports to the European Union could fall by around 195,000 tonnes, or nearly 60%.
The report published on 11 August by the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre measures the consequences of more closely aligning the standards imposed on imported agricultural products with those applied to European producers.
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Brussels is examining 18 active substances banned in the European Union and 235 agricultural products from 86 countries. For these substances, the scenario tested consists of lowering the maximum residue limits permitted on imported products to the minimum detection threshold.
Morocco appears particularly exposed in the tomato sector. In the intermediate scenario, in which foreign producers can adapt but only at the cost of significant changes, Moroccan volumes exported to the EU would fall by around 195,000 tonnes, or nearly 60%.
Up to 325,000 tonnes in the most severe scenario
The researchers tested several assumptions based on producers’ ability to replace the substances concerned. When adaptation is relatively easy, the decline in Moroccan tomato exports would remain limited to around 7,000 tonnes.
Conversely, in the most severe scenario, in which the affected trade ends due to a lack of an alternative solution, Morocco could lose around 325,000 tonnes of tomato exports to the European market.
Across the European Union, the agricultural imports concerned would fall by 41% in the extreme scenario, compared with 8% in the intermediate scenario and just 0.4% when adaptation is easy.
The JRC nevertheless points out that these figures are economic scenarios, not forecasts. No European decision currently requires a reduction of 195,000 tonnes in Moroccan tomato exports.
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The study nevertheless provides a very concrete measure of the risk: if Brussels decided to align the residue limits applied to imports much more strictly, Moroccan tomatoes would be among the products most exposed.
