U.S. Phosphorus Reserves Could Run Out in 40 Years: Morocco Becomes Indispensable
A scientific study warns of the possible depletion of U.S. phosphorus resources within forty years. Essential for fertilizers and crops, this mineral now places Morocco at the heart of the food security of the United States.
The United States could exhaust its domestic phosphorus resources over the next forty years. The warning accompanies a study published in the scientific journal PNAS, which analyzes ways to strengthen U.S. supplies through the recycling of this mineral, which is essential to agriculture.
The researchers studied the needs of 91 crops and the waste produced by 20 livestock categories across 3 142 American counties. Their model is based on data going back to 1866 and establishes projections through 2050.
Phosphorus is, along with nitrogen and potassium, one of the three main nutrients used to fertilize agricultural land. Without a regular supply, yields decline and food security can be directly affected. Approximately 80% of the phosphorus spread on fields would, moreover, not be absorbed by crops.
On Bladi.net : Morocco’s Phosphate Reserves Key to Global Food Security, World Bank Says
The study nevertheless shows that soils, livestock effluent, agricultural residues, sewage sludge and food waste contain significant recoverable quantities. The phosphorus already accumulated in American soils could theoretically cover future needs several times over, but its extraction and transportation remain technically and economically difficult.
In the immediate term, the United States remains dependent on imports. Morocco already produces more phosphate than the United States and has a supply capacity that Washington considers sufficiently reliable to meet the needs of its farmers.
Washington Opens the Door to Moroccan Phosphate
On June 29, 2026, the White House declared an emergency regarding the availability of phosphate fertilizers. In its official proclamation, it acknowledges that U.S. production is insufficient to cover the country’s agricultural needs after exports are taken into account.
The presidential text expressly cites the Kingdom of Morocco among the producers capable of supplying the United States “without interruption.” Donald Trump thus authorized the suspension, for a maximum of eight months, of the duties and deposits imposed on Moroccan phosphate fertilizers.
This decision enabled OCP to resume its shipments to the U.S. market after several years of restrictions. An initial shipment of approximately 54 000 tonnes of Moroccan triple superphosphate arrived at the Port of New Orleans to supply farmers ahead of the autumn season.
On Bladi.net : article 111503
In the long term, recycling could reduce U.S. dependence on imports. But until these channels become sufficiently profitable and organized, Morocco’s reserves and OCP’s industrial capacities will retain strategic importance for agriculture and the food security of the United States.