The French population is no longer growing without immigration, with Morocco remaining at the forefront
France now records more deaths than births. In the short term, its population would continue to grow only thanks to net migration. A major shift, as Morocco remains the second country of birth of new immigrants arriving in France.
New projections published by Insee in June show that France’s natural population balance has been negative since 2025. In its central scenario, however, the institute forecasts a slight population increase, from 69.1 million inhabitants in 2026 to 69.8 million in 2037.
On Bladi.net : The Maghreb helps France avoid population decline
This growth would be entirely due to net migration. Insee uses an assumption of +150,000 people per year between arrivals and departures from the country. This is not a government target, but an assumption used to construct the projections.
Even with this contribution, the population would begin to decline from 2037 onward, reaching 65.9 million inhabitants in 2070. With a lower migration assumption of +70,000 people per year, the demographic decline would begin as early as 2028.
23,300 people born in Morocco in a single year
This shift comes as Morocco retains an important position in migration flows to France. According to another Insee publication, 313,200 immigrants arrived in France in 2024.
Among them, approximately 23,300 were born in Morocco, representing 7.4% of the total. The Kingdom is thus the second country of birth of new immigrants arriving in France, just behind Algeria, with 24,700 people. Tunisia follows with approximately 15,100 arrivals.
The three Maghreb countries therefore account for nearly 63,000 new immigrants in a single year. Overall, nearly 46% of immigrants arriving in France in 2024 were born in Africa.
On Bladi.net : Algeria, Morocco, Portugal: where do the immigrants settled in France come from?
The projections show an evolution that is difficult to ignore: French population growth now depends, in the short term, on a positive net migration balance. And this new demographic reality is emerging at a time when Morocco remains one of the leading origins of immigration to France.
