A senior NATO official assures that the allies would support Spain if it invoked Article 5 following an event in Sebta or Melilla. He also sees a possible element of “hybrid warfare” in the mass crossings from Morocco.
Spain will be able to arm its drones and modernize its software, but it will not be able to buy the experience Morocco has already accumulated. After nearly six years of operations, the FAR possess expertise that Madrid is only beginning to build.
Morocco is rapidly modernizing its military aviation, but Spain is believed to retain a clear lead. For former Spanish colonel Manuel Morato, Madrid’s superiority remains “real,” notably thanks to its Eurofighters, the training of its military personnel and its membership in NATO.
“Neither wants war, but both are preparing for the worst.” Issued at the end of 2025 regarding Morocco and Algeria, the warning has taken on a new dimension with the acceleration of the two neighbors’ military modernization.
Following the United States, NATO is also counting on Morocco to train African military personnel. A session of the DEEP programme is to be organised in the kingdom by the end of 2026 or early 2027.
Spain spends far more on its defense than Morocco and maintains a clear air and naval advantage. But in terms of military personnel, the balance is reversed: the estimates cited attribute more than three times as many troops to Morocco.
After losing a massive Canadian contract to Germany, South Korea’s shipbuilding industry is already looking at its next opportunities. Morocco appears in its sights with a possible program involving two submarines, but no official procedure has been announced yet.
Spain spends far more than Morocco on defense. But relative to the size of its economy, Morocco’s military effort appears significantly higher, according to a Spanish analysis based notably on SIPRI data.
As Donald Trump threatens to reconsider American military presence in Europe, Spain’s Rota and Morón bases return to the center of debate. A former Pentagon official dismisses the idea of simple replacement by Morocco.
Spain is evaluating its defense capabilities against new geopolitical competitors. Among them, Morocco is perceived as a major threat to Spanish sovereignty, pushing Madrid to rethink its arsenal and strategy.
The acceleration of Morocco’s military modernization is reshaping the regional balance. While a direct armed conflict remains unlikely, this increase in power is forcing Spain to urgently review its defensive and diplomatic posture in the face of growing hybrid pressure.
The Spanish Army is strengthening its presence in the Canary Islands. By deploying its new Eurofighter jets, Madrid is sending Morocco a very clear strategic deterrence signal to secure this southern flank against potential threats.