With Trump behind him, Morocco may feel strong enough to challenge Europe
After the Ceuta crisis, several analysts believe that Rabat’s proximity to Washington is bolstering Morocco’s confidence in its dealings with Spain and a Europe dependent on its cooperation on migration. However, no public evidence demonstrates any coordination with the Trump administration.
More than 70,000 people recently crossed the Ceuta border before returning, for the most part, to Morocco. Rabat denies any involvement in this mass movement, whose exact trigger remains difficult to establish.
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Nevertheless, Riccardo Fabiani, director of the North Africa project at the International Crisis Group, considers it possible that Moroccan authorities saw the calls circulating on social media and chose to let the situation unfold. He does not believe that Rabat necessarily organized the operation.
In an analysis published by The Guardian, the expert also puts forward a hypothesis he acknowledges is impossible to prove: the proximity to Donald Trump may have influenced Morocco’s attitude, giving Rabat the feeling that it had strong support in Washington.
Relations between the two countries have strengthened since the US recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over the Sahara during Trump’s first term. Mohammed VI recently gave the American president’s name to a billion-dollar highway built in the region.
Washington attacks Madrid and spares Rabat
After the events in Ceuta, Donald Trump, his vice president JD Vance and the State Department criticized the Spanish government without mentioning any possible responsibility on Morocco’s part.
This reaction comes as relations between Washington and Pedro Sánchez are particularly strained. The Spanish prime minister opposed the use of his country’s bases during the war in Iran, the US military spending target and Israeli policy in Gaza.
For Haizam Amirah-Fernández, director of the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies in Madrid, this sequence illustrates Morocco’s ability to employ “hybrid” tactics to defend its political objectives. He compares the current crisis with that of May 2021, when more than 8,000 people had crossed the border amid tensions between Rabat and Madrid.
Analysts primarily highlight the vulnerability of the European Union. By entrusting Morocco with part of the control of its migrant borders, it becomes dependent on the decisions of a partner that is also pursuing its own interests.
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According to Riccardo Fabiani, American support helps strengthen Morocco’s position, while Europe would be poorly prepared for a fresh escalation of tensions. This remains the view of experts: no evidence makes it possible to assert that Rabat and Washington reached an understanding over the Ceuta crisis.
